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17 July 2026

Alzheimer’s risk prediction: breakthrough blood test unveiled

Scientists have developed a blood test that can predict the risk of developing Alzheimer's symptoms within the next decade, offering new hope for early intervention and prevention.

Alzheimer's risk prediction: breakthrough blood test unveiled

In a groundbreaking development, researchers have unveiled a blood test that can predict the likelihood of developing Alzheimer’s symptoms in apparently healthy older adults. This innovative test, which measures levels of a specific form of tau protein called p-tau217 could significantly accelerate drug development and preventive strategies for Alzheimer’s disease.

The study, published in JAMA and presented at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference in London, analyzed data from over 2,600 cognitively healthy older adults. The findings revealed that individuals with very high levels of p-tau217 had a 38% risk of developing cognitive impairment within five years, which increased to 78% over a decade.

Understanding the biomarkers of Alzheimer’s

Alzheimer’s disease is characterized by the buildup of amyloid plaques and tau tangles in the brain. The p-tau217 test measures a form of tau that correlates with amyloid plaque buildup and provides insights into the presence of tau tangles. This biomarker offers a window into the progression of the disease, allowing for earlier identification of high-risk individuals.

Dr. Reisa Sperling of the Mass General Brigham Neuroscience Institute emphasized the importance of this test for future clinical trials. ‘This is a gradual process where amyloid and tau build up in the brain, and this blood-based biomarker is telling you how far you are in that process,’ she explained. However, she cautioned that it is still too early for healthy individuals to seek out this test, as there are currently no proven interventions based on the results.

The potential and limitations of the p-tau217 test

While the p-tau217 test shows great promise, experts have highlighted some limitations. For instance, the predictions could be influenced by other factors such as heart-related problems or the risk of dying from other causes. Additionally, the 10-year risk estimate is less robust due to a smaller sample size of participants tracked for a full decade.

Drs. Suzanne Schindler of Washington University in St. Louis and David Wolk of the University of Pennsylvania noted in a commentary published in JAMA that the blood tests ‘are not yet precise enough to guide individualized prognosis.’ However, they acknowledged that the new findings have provided a crucial piece of the puzzle in understanding and predicting Alzheimer’s risk.

Exploring new treatment avenues

In addition to the predictive blood test, researchers are also making strides in developing treatments that target tau proteins. A study presented at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference reported encouraging results from a drug called diranersen which reduces tau production in the brain. The trial showed that participants who received diranersen experienced a 50%-65% reduction in tau levels and a slowing of cognitive decline by up to 50% on certain brain tests.

Dr. Lawren VandeVrede, a principal investigator in the study, highlighted the significance of these findings. ‘This is the first trial to ever show reduction in tau,’ he said. ‘And importantly, we saw clinical benefit of doing that.’ Dr. Lennart Mucke, director of the Gladstone Institute of Neurological Disease, emphasized that reducing tau matters, regardless of its role in the disease process.

As research continues to advance, the combination of predictive blood tests and innovative treatments offers new hope for the early detection and management of Alzheimer’s disease. While there is still much to learn, these developments bring us one step closer to understanding and combating this devastating condition.

Author

Sophie Donovan

Sophie Donovan, Manchester-born and classically elegant, once turned down a commission to chase a long-form piece on Salford’s textile heritage, filing instead from the mill where her grandmother worked. Advocates patient, context-rich features and brings a taste for quiet narrative detail and theatre aficionadoship.